The PGA Tour heads to St. Simons Island, Georgia for the 2023 RSM Classic — the final event in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season.
In past editions of the RSM Classic, sportsbooks offered first-round leader odds for the full field in one market. However, golfers on the par-72 Plantation Course have a significant scoring edge over those on the par-70 Seaside Course, so sportsbooks have since split the first-round leader market in two, with one market for each course.
Find my first-round leader picks for the 2023 RSM Classic for both the Plantation and Seaside markets below.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2023 FRL PicksRyan Moore +4500 (Plantation | FanDuel)First-Round Tee Time: 8:00 a.m. ET
If you tuned into the Links + Locks Podcast last week, hopefully you tailed my bets on Ryan Moore top 20 (+275) and top 10 (+600) as he finished T5 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. I liked Moore last week because of his consistent Driving Accuracy and impressive expected proximity inside of 175 yards, and I like him again this week for similar reasons.
The Plantation course is a par-72, but it is one of the shortest courses on Tour at just 7,060 yards. For my first-round-leader bet, I want to invest in a golfer who can hit fairways and leave himself plenty of scoring opportunities. Moore fits that criteria.
The UNLV product will give himself chances with scoring clubs as he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. And when he does miss fairways, he doesn't miss by much, as his rank of second in Distance From the Edge of the Fairway attests.
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When he does find the short grass, the Runnin' Rebel should be in position to capitalize. He should have most approaches coming from between 75 and 175 yards, which is right in his wheelhouse. Moore ranks second on Tour in Proximity from 75-100 yards, 46th from 100-125 yards, sixth from 125-150 yards and fourth from 150-175 yards.
Moore doesn't have the best par-5 scoring numbers, which are more important on this par-72 course, but with three of the par-5s playing under 560 yards, his lack of distance off the tee shouldn't preclude him from taking advantage of those holes.
Moore's putter is a big weakness in his game, but it might be hot right now, which means this is the time to bet him. In his last tournament with Shotlink Data (Shriners Children's Open), Moore had his best putting week of the year as he was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting (+1.87 strokes per round).
Unfortunately, we don't have any data available from his past two starts, a T38 and a T5, but considering he finished at 15-under par and 19-under par, I'm willing to take a chance that Moore can keep rolling in birdies on Thursday.
FanDuel has the best FRL price on him at +4500, and I'd bet him down to +4000.
Pick: Ryan Moore FRL +4500Bet Moore FRL Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Kevin Yu +5500 (Seaside | FanDuel)First-Round Tee Time: 8:55 a.m. ET
Kevin Yu went through a rough stretch of play where he missed five of six cuts between the Wyndham Championship and the World Wide Technology Championship, but he bounced back with a T30 last week, which included rounds of 65 (-6) and 63 (-8).
Yu is an immensely talented golfer who can go low on any course because he is elite off the tee and consistently hits greens in regulation. The Arizona State Sun Devil is fourth on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and second in Greens in Regulation Percentage (72.62%).
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As a result, Yu consistently gives himself plenty of birdie opportunities and ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in Birdie or Better Percentage at 24.64%.
While he is above the Tour average in Par-3 Birdie Rate, he is elite in both Par-4 Birdie Rate (eighth at 21.11%) and Par-5 Birdie Rate (27th at 50.00%). The Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club features 12 par-4s, as many as any other course on the PGA Tour, which should help Yu more than anyone on Thursday.
Yu's putter has been horrific in his rookie season on Tour as he is 189th in Strokes Gained: Putting, but he has shown flashes with the flatstick before, like when he led the field in SG: Putting at the John Deere Classic this summer. Yu posted two rounds of 65 or lower last week — where he rolled some putts in — so, hopefully he carries that confidence with his putter over to St. Simons Island this week.
Yu is available at multiple sportsbooks at +5500, and I'd bet him down to +4500 for FRL.
Pick: Kevin Yu FRL +5500Bet Yu Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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