Burnley is need of a positive result when it hosts Bournemouth at Turf Moor.
Things are going really bad for Vincent Kompany right now. Burnley is currently 12 points from getting out of the relegation zone and has not won a match since Dec. 23. This is one of its better opportunities left on the schedule to pick up points, so it needs a result here.
Bournemouth has taken a bit of a step back after its great run in November and December to pull it out of the relegation fight. Even though the recent results haven't been great, everything is seemingly headed in the right direction under Andoni Iraola, and this is a perfect opportunity to grab all three points.
Let's get to our Burnley vs. Bournemouth prediction and pick.
BurnleyThe root of the problem with Burnley is it played a certain style in the Championship that worked for the second division. With the personnel they have, it was never going to work in the Premier League.
Take Fulham, for example. It played a similar possession-dominant style in the year when it broke all kinds of records in the Championship, and then came up to the Premier League and played a more direct style because Marco Silva knew his team could never survive. Kompany has switched his team to a 4-4-2, but the recruitment it made in the summer was specific for a certain style of play.
Burnley is learning this the hard way and it's going to get them relegated. The underlying numbers rival that of Sheffield United with how bad it's been for the Clarets. They are currently sitting with a -22.7 expected goal differential and have only created 23.5 expected goals on the season, which is the lowest number in the Premier League.
Not surprisingly, Burnley has also created the fewest big scoring chances as well. They have had a couple positive matches recently where they've created over one expected goal against both Liverpool and Manchester City, but basically all of their chances came when they were behind by multiple goals. In fact, when Burnley is playing from an even-game state, it has a -1.1 xGD per 90 minutes, which shows how truly bad they are.
BournemouthBournemouth has been steadily getting better and better since the terrible start to the season. Since Nov. 11, Bournemouth has a 0.75 NPxGD per 90 minutes, which is all thanks to its hybrid press.
This hybrid press, which is a mixture of man-to-man and zonal pressure, is designed to push and trap teams to one side of the pitch to eventually try and turn the ball over high, which leads to a transition opportunity.
Where the hybrid press is vulnerable is when teams try and switch the play because you are committing so many players to one side of the pitch. Burnley has the third-fewest switches of play to the other side of the pitch of anyone in the Premier League because Kompany wants his team to build out of the back and rely on short combination passes to get through the opponent's pressure.
That is going to be a problem because Iraola’s hybrid press has been thriving lately. Since Nov. 11, Bournemouth has the third-best PPDA in the Premier League at 8.6 and leads the league in goals scored of high turnovers with seven.
They came from behind to beat Burnley in the previous meeting, but they were pretty fortunate to do so, as they only created 1.1 expected goals off 13 shots for the match.
Prediction
There is a potential big loss in this match for Bournemouth, as its star striker Dominic Solanke is most likely not going to play. Solanke has started all 25 of Bournemouth's matches and has scored 14 goals, so losing him could be detrimental to their chances of grabbing all three points.
With that being said, if Burnley is not going to play direct and try to build out against Bournemouth's hybrid press, there are going to be a lot of high turnovers to give Bournemouth golden opportunities.
Since the last meeting only had a combined 2.1 expected goals created, Bournemouth is going to be without Solanke and Burnley is the worst offensive team in the Premier League, I like the value on Under 2.5 goals at +120.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+120 via Caesars)
Sunday, Mar. 38 a.m. ETPeacock
Burnley Odds+275Bournemouth Odds-106Draw+260Over / Under2.5 -143o /+110uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.