We have reached the business end of the college football season: conference championship weekend. There's still a lot that needs to be sorted out in terms of the College Football Playoff, so we'll have a ton of drama ahead of us this weekend.
The market clearly moves a lot over the course of the week. Money pours in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday. Like any other sport, it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
The hope for this piece is to beat the market, get the best price possible, and in the long run, save you some money with closing line value. To do that, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
MAC Championship: Miami (OH) vs. ToledoSaturday, Dec. 212 p.m. ETESPNMiami (OH) OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline+8.5-11246-110o / -110u+270Toledo OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline-8.5-10846-110o / -110u-340Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.Miami (OH) vs. Toledo ProjectionsAction NetworkCunninghamSP+Toledo -5.5Toledo -5.3Toledo -6.5When the MAC Championship takes place at Ford Field, Miami (OH) will have a chance to exact revenge for the 21-17 loss Toledo handed it on Oct. 21.
Miami closed out a 10-2 season by beating Ball State, 17-15, which marked its 10th win in 11 games. The RedHawks lost Brett Gabbert for the season in that loss to Toledo, but Aveon Smith has come in and made them a good rushing team.
Rashad Amos is having a fantastic season for the RedHawks as the lead back, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with 23 runs over 10 yards.
Miami (OH) will need to run the ball effectively because that's how teams beat this Toledo defense. The Rockets are outside the top 70 in both Rushing Success Rate, EPA/Rush Allowed and Defensive Line Yards. Amos ran the ball for 5.5 yards per carry in the previous meeting, so if he can do that again, the RedHawks have a chance in this game.
There's no doubt Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn has been awesome this season. He's an incredible dual-threat quarterback. However, there's a pretty drastic difference between his performances at the Glass Bowl, as opposed to those away from it.
LocationYards per AttemptCompletion %Away6.659.0%Home10.973.6