The Friday MLB slate isn't as large as Opening Day's, but there are still plenty of edges to find in the MLB player props market.
I'm targeting the under on strikeout props for Martin Perez and George Kirby, plus a stolen bases prop on Cardinals rookie speedster Victor Scott against the Dodgers.
Let's dive into my Friday MLB player props for March 29.
As I noted in my game guide for this matchup, Martin Perez struggled to missing bats last season. He ranked in the 5th percentile in strikeout rate and the 3rd percentile in whiff rate.
Perez faces a Marlins lineup that was 23rd in team strikeout rate last season, and that rate is set to improve with the addition of Tim Anderson. We saw that in yesterday's matchup, as they only struck out six times in 12 innings.
On top of all this, Perez went under this number in 60 percent of his 20 starts last season. That gives us an implied odd of -150 that he will go under again tonight.
Lastly, our Action Labs projections have this under as on of it's top plays with Perez slated for 3.3 strikeouts.
Pick: Martin Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings)
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Friday, Mar 299:40 p.m. ETMLB.TVGeorge Kirby Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)While George Kirby's sophomore season was as equally impressive as his rookie year, the one area where he dropped off was strikeouts. His strikeout rate dropped nearly two percent from 2022 to 2023.
Tonight, he'll start his 2024 campaign against a Red Sox team that was average in terms of strikeout rate. However, his matchup may be decent for strikeouts, but his length in this outing is in question.
Yes, Kirby worked at least five innings in his last two spring starts, but he was very efficient and didn't get his pitch count up very high. So, even if he does go six innings in this game, with him averaging less than a strikeout per inning in career, we should feel confident.
The numbers also back up the price here as Kirby went under this number in 61 percent of games last year, which gives us implied odds of -156.
Pick: George Kirby Under 6.5 Strikeout (-145 at bet365)
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Friday, Mar 2910:10 p.m. ETApple TV+Victor Scott II Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+175)This is a price that may not last very long. If you have not yet hear of the Cardinals' Victor Scott II, he is the new Vince Coleman. Scott stole 94 bases across Single-A and Double-A last season, and he kicked his big league career off with a stolen base yesterday in his debut.
We saw last season how all the new rules in baseball emplored teams to steal bases and it may help no one more than Scott this season. Scott also has a good matchup to steal another bag tonight with Bobby Miller on the mound.
Basestealers have a 93.8 succcess rate against Miller in his big-league career. So Scott will have the green light and it's going to be very hard for Dodgers to catch him tonight.
Pick: Victor Scott II Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+175 at DraftKings)
