Here's our Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano pick for UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – with our expert prediction.
While UFC 300 arguably underdelivered on its promise of a face-melting main event, it's an incredibly stacked fight card. As evidence, look no further than the early preliminary card bout between Jalin Turner and Renato Moicano.
Both fighters have been main-card mainstays in recent years, thanks to their exciting styles – and in the case of Moicano, even more exciting post-fight interviews:
It's also an important fight for the division with two ranked fighters jockeying for a seat at the grown-up table for title contenders.
Below is my Turner vs. Moicano pick for Saturday's featured bout on the ESPN+ early prelims. The early prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET. Turner vs. Moicano, which is the third of 12 bouts at UFC 300, is set for approximately 7:30 p.m. ET.
Tale of the TapeTurnerMoicanoRecord14-718-5-1Avg. Fight Time7:079:26Height6'3"5'11"Weight (pounds)155.5 lbs.156 lbs.Reach (inches)77"72"StanceSouthpawOrthodoxDate of birth5/18/19955/21/1989Sig Strikes Per Min6.024.41SS Accuracy48G%SS Absorbed Per Min4.633.80SS Defense41`%Take Down Avg0.881.80TD Acc55G%TD Def75r%Submission Avg1.20.6After floundering for a few years as "just a guy" in the featherweight division, Renato Moicano found new life at 155 pounds. "Money" made his divisional debut in 2020 and has gone 5-2 with four submission victories as a lightweight.
Moicano has borderline-elite grappling ability, with 10 of his professional victories coming via submission. He's not the prototypical Brazilian grappler, however. While he holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he began his martial arts journey with judo, and his grappling translates better to MMA than it does for many BJJ athletes.
That's because Moicano prioritizes getting and keeping top position over rolling for slick submissions. The fact that all of his submissions have come via rear-naked choke points to that fact, but it's also apparent in his tape. He racked up more than 10 minutes of control time against Drew Dober in a 15-minute fight, and he needed just three takedowns to accomplish that.
UFC 300 Odds & Predictions: Sean Zerillo's Betting Preview for All 13 FightsRead nowThat's a fairly safe style for MMA. He typically wins any round in which he can secure a takedown by staying on top and doing damage throughout the frame.
As safe as "Money" is on the ground, though, he's an extremely risky striker. Not afraid to brawl in the pocket despite his lack of size and power for the division, Moicano takes plenty of chances on the feet. He's reasonably durable even against bigger fighters, but he's suffered three knockout losses in the UFC octagon.
Which could come into play against Turner, an absolutely massive lightweight with huge power. At 6-foot-3, Turner is one of the biggest lightweights in the division, and he's picked up stoppages in all seven of his UFC wins.
A southpaw, Turner uses his range well, and he typically excels in the front-foot battle against orthodox fighters. He accomplishes this by initiating attacks from the power side, which he can typically land from farther away than his opponents can land jabs.
However, Turner relies heavily on rear leg kicks in his striking. That's been problematic in the past against other grapplers, with Mateusz Gamrot catching multiple kicks en route to takedowns.
Turner is a solid submission fighter from his back, and he uses his length to wrap up subs from awkward angles. However, that's a double-edged sword. His long limbs make it difficult to establish "frames" and create space between him and his opponent, forcing "The Tarantula" to rely on explosive movements and risky back-turns to escape back to standing.
Turner vs. Moicano PickWhile the obvious dichotomy in this fight is between the striking of Turner and the grappling of Moicano, there's a crucial, less obvious factor at play too: That's the likely cardio edge held by Moicano.
Some combination of his size, massive weight cut, and reliance on explosive ability limits Turner's effectiveness the deeper into fights he gets. He's 0-5 in career fights that start the third round, and he's 14-2 otherwise.
Moicano's style plays out well as fights progress, and he's 8-1 in career decisions.
Of course, lasting that long is no small feat against Turner. Moicano will have some scary moments on the feet early as he attempts to break through the range of his much taller opponent.
UFC 300 Best Bets: Our Favorite Picks for Pereira vs. Hill, Weili vs. Xiaonan & MoreRead nowStill, I was encouraged by Moicano's performance against another hard-hitting lefty, Drew Dober, in his most recent fight. Moicano was able to deflect or absorb most of the damage from Dober's strikes, and Turner isn't quite as quick as Dober on the feet. I was also impressed with Moicano's wrestling in recent fights, which seems to have come a long way since his time at featherweight.
Turner rarely has been paired with grapplers, but he allowed four takedowns each to Matt Frevola and Mateusz Gamrot, the latter of whom took the fight on less than a week's notice.
My favorite bet here is Moicano live following the first and/or second rounds, as we could both get a better price and limit the risk of a quick Turner knockout.
However, from a prefight angle, I like Moicano to win in "Round 3 or Decision" at +410 as a sprinkle while we await the live bet. That's a bit better than double his moneyline odds, despite being the most likely path to a win.
The Pick: Renato Moicano in Round 3 or Decision (+410 at FanDuel)
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