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UFC Vegas 83 Odds, Picks, Projections Our Best Bets for Song Yadong vs Chris Gutierrez, More (Saturday, December 9)
Updated:2024-05-04 09:51    Views:153

Check out our UFC Vegas 83 best bets for the Saturday event in Las Vegas, which streams entirely on ESPN+.

UFC Vegas 83 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The preliminary card and main card both stream on ESPN+ with a 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT) start time.

With 11 bouts in all, MMA bettors have plenty of options with tonight's UFC fight card.

So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four picks, including two prop bets, on tonight's card that present betting value.

You can find their UFC Vegas 83 best bets and analysis for each expert pick below.

Phone With the Action App OpenThe must-have app for UFC bettorsThe best UFC betting scoreboardFree picks from proven prosLive win probabilities for your betsDOWNLOAD NOWBilly Ward: Rayanne Amanada vs. Talita Alencar

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET

The opening bout of UFC Vegas 83 features two strawweights making their promotional debuts. Talita Alencar was initially denied a UFC contract after a draw on the Contender Series, but she's stepping in to help fill out this card after the shift from China left it a bit thin.

Alencar (-160) is now taking on Rayanne Amanda (+140), who鈥檚 gone 3-0 in smaller promotions since losing her Contender Series bout in 2022.

There鈥檚 two parts to this pick. The first is that DraftKings is simply off market with their line. Alencar鈥檚 moneyline is as low as +120 at other shops, with the consensus around +125. With just a bit of line movement, you could even potentially have an arbitrage opportunity with Amanda 鈥?who鈥檚 best line is currently -155.

UFC Vegas 83 Props: 5 MMA Prop Squad Picks With Long OddsRead now

All that aside, I鈥檝e been on Alencar most of the week. The biggest reason is the weight class. Alencar is a small strawweight, and she likely would鈥檝e been able to put away her Contende Series opponent were she not at such a physical disadvantage.

However, so is Amanda. Outside of the Contender Series, Amanda has primarily fought at atomweight (105 pounds). That means Alencar is fighting a similarly sized opponent rather than giving up a ton of size and strength.

Which makes her very dangerous, as one of the most accomplished submission grapplers in the world. She鈥檚 a three-time IBJJF world no-gi champion at black belt with one world title in the gi as well 鈥?among many other grappling titles.

The problem for Amanda is that she also likes to grapple, with eight submissions in 14 professional wins. That might work against most MMA fighters 鈥?but probably not against Alencar.

This fight is also somewhat heavily favored to go the distance, and I almost always want the underdog in those cases.

The Pick: Talita Alencar (+140 at DraftKings)

Dan Tom: Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Hernandez

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

Considering all the shake ups that UFC Vegas 83 has experienced, I'm happy to see that the flyweight contest between Tatsuro Taira (-590) and Carlos Hernandez (+410) is still intact.

The prices are a bit steep from a moneyline perspective (particularly for flyweight), but I believe there is a clear way to attack the prop market if you're looking for a more playable line on the favorite.

Even though I suspect that Hernandez's left hook will be live whenever these two are standing, the native of Chicago tends to give ground too readily when it comes to putting his back to the cage.

Add in the fact that this fight will now be taking place in the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex, and it's not hard to see a path where Taira can ply his grappling prowess to produce a win by submission (which can still be found at plus money at multiple houses).

I don't believe that Taira is completely bulletproof as a prospect, but it's clear that the UFC is taking special care of the 23-year-old in regards to giving him a steady build.

There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to betting on MMA, but you could do a lot worse than backing the superior submission fighter in the smaller cage in this spot.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira by Submission (+115 at FanDuel)

Bet Taira Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

Dann Stupp: Tim Elliott vs. Su Mudaerji

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET

There are few fighters who could compete on short notice and earn my trust. I would deem even fewer of them a trustworthy bet as a favorite in the fight.

But on just one week's notice, veteran flyweight Tim Elliott (-130) steps in for Allan Nascimento in a bout with Su Mudaerji (+110), and Elliott's my pick.

The main-card bout, which will be contested at 135 pounds instead of 125 because of the late notice, seems like a great get-right spot for Elliott, who's had an up-and-down career since he joined the UFC as an immediate title challenger back in 2016.

However, as 36-year-old Elliott enters the twilight of his well-travelled career, I've been impressed with his win-first, entertain-second mentality in recent bouts. Although still prone to some inconsistency, Elliott has been quick to use his main advantage 鈥?wrestling 鈥?to improve his chances of winning.

I don't think Elliott's going to shy away from takedowns and from muting Mudaerji's striking. And even if Mudaerji does get his opportunities to tee off, Elliott hasn't been knocked out since 2009 鈥?in his third pro fight. I think he can withstand the barrages and force the action back to the mat.

Additionally, I think the 135-pound nature of the bout is going to favor Elliott more than it does Mudaerji, who spent most of his camp preparing for 125. And all five of the Chinese fighter's losses have come via submission 鈥?which is another point in Elliott's favor.

There could be dicy moments, for sure, but as the fight wears on, I think Elliott will start to look more and more like a deserving favorite in this fight.

Give me Elliott at -130, and take that bet down to -155.

The Pick: Tim Elliott (-130 at Caesars)

Tony Sartori: Song Yadong vs. Chris Gutierrez

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 a.m. ET

In the main event of this weekend's UFC Vegas 83 event, Song Yadong (-350) squares off against Chris Gutierrez (+275) in a bantamweight bout between two ranked contenders.

You can certainly lay the juice on the favorite, but with such a heavy price on Yadong, I like to look elsewhere in the props market to see how we can bet him at plus money. We know how Yadong is going to attack this fight: by trying to stand and bang to get Gutierrez out of there on the feet.

Yadong has landed just two takedowns over his past nine fights in the UFC, and both of those occurred in his bout against Cory Sandhagen. There are two reasons why it made more sense to implement some grappling in that fight.

First, Sandhagen was three inches taller and longer, so closing the distance makes sense for the smaller Yadong. However, that size disparity does not exist against Gutierrez.

Second, and with all due respect to Guiterrez, Sandhagen is a far more dangerous striker. Even a striker of Yadong's pedigree should always be looking to change levels in a fight against Sandhagen.

So, with that in mind, I highly doubt we see Yadong attempt to change levels during this fight. If we are aligned with the oddsmakers that this is Yadong's fight to lose, and we don't think he's going to change levels, then it's fair to assume he will utilize his clinical striking to either collect a knockout or win on the scorecards.

The primary reason why I believe it will be the latter is that Gutierrez has a tremendous chin. The guy has never been knocked out through 26 professional MMA fights.

Even if Yadong is piecing him up on the feet, I think Gutierrez can survive until Joe Martinez reads the judges' decision. We saw Yadong utilize his striking to beat both Marlon Vera and Casey Kenney on the scorecards, and if he can beat "Chito" Vera in a striking battle en route to a decision victory, then he can do the same to Gutierrez.

The Pick: Song Yadong by Decision (+190 at Unibet)